#FVnoticias Que Leonel sea candidato por cuarta vez, con pocas o amplias posibilidades de ganar está en manos de Danilo

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Fuente: Héctor Marte Pérez
(Periódico El Caribe)

 

Para el Presidente y sus seguidores hay varios escenarios posibles, entre ellos buscar la vía de otra reelección

El presidente Danilo Medina, quien tiene un escollo constitucional para volver a aspirar al cargo que ostenta, pero mantiene el control de su partido y goza de altos niveles de aceptación, tendría que tomar importantes decisiones sobre su futuro político, y más específicamente, sobre el rol que jugará en las elecciones del 2020.

Son varias opciones que se le presentan al mandatario y al sector que encabeza dentro del Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD). Mantenerse al margen de la selección del candidato presidencial de la organización es una de ellas, aunque parece la más remota. De hacerlo así, es casi seguro que, en ese escenario, se impondría fácilmente Leonel Fernández como candidato presidencial.

Algunas de las otras alternativas posibles para el mandatario serían: intentar otra repostulación, propiciando el cambio en las actuales reglas del juego; apoyar a una figura de su confianza para la candidatura presidencial, o llegar un acuerdo con Fernández, para que ambos respalden a un tercero o tercera.

 

Neutralidad: escenario improbable

No parece probable, pero es una de las opciones. Medina podría decidir no buscar la candidatura presidencial y tampoco apoyar abierta o solapadamente a algún aspirante.

En ese escenario, el danilismo solo diría presente en la lucha por las candidaturas a cargos congresuales y municipales, garantizando que su dominio en las estructuras partidarias también se refleje en una mayoría en el Congreso y los cabildos. Eso no sería difícil, ya que el sector que encabeza el mandatario parece vivir su mejor momento en el PLD, y no se vislumbra que el panorama cambie por ahora.

Si deciden transitar ese camino, los danilistas también podrían intentar llevar a su líder a la presidencia del partido morado.

Pero ocurre que, de optar por la neutralidad, los seguidores del Presidente se dispersarían entre los distintos proyectos presidenciales que existen en el PLD. El panorama estaría pintado para una victoria interna del expresidente Fernández, incluso si se juntaran todos los demás aspirantes. Por lo menos, eso es lo que sugieren los “numeritos” que se han visto hasta el momento.
Eso implicaría que Fernández sería candidato por cuarta vez, con amplias posibilidades de ganar su cuarto período, con lo que gobernaría 16 años. Esto último es algo que no le hace mucha gracia a los danilistas, y muchos de ellos no lo disimulan. A esos niveles llega la rivalidad entre los dos principales grupos del partido morado.

Otra reelección

Buscar una nueva repostulación sería complicado y tendría sus costos políticos, pero si las condiciones son propicias, es algo que seguramente Danilo va a contemplar. De hecho, ya debe estar pensando en eso.

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Para lograr la habilitación, habría al menos tres posibilidades: Una de ellas es acudir al Tribunal Constitucional, a fin de que este anule la vigésima disposición transitoria de la Constitución que impide a Medina, y solo a él, ser candidato presidencial o vicepresidencial en el 2020. Ya hubo un intento de que esta disposición sea anulada por el TC. El protagonista de esta acción fue el abogado reformista Fredermido Ferreras, pero todo indica que no fue el sector danilista que lo impulsó. Es más creíble que el grupo haya maniobrado para que “Morenito” retirara la instancia.

Al parecer, la acción no formaba parte de la estrategia del danilismo, o al menos no era el momento adecuado o había alguna diferencia de forma con relación a la instancia. Lo cierto es que la acción, más que útil, resultó engorrosa para el grupo dominante del partido oficialista.

Otra vía para la habilitación es reformar la Constitución nuevamente, pero no para tocar el artículo 124, que limita la reelección, sino para eliminar el transitorio.

Una tercera modalidad es casi idéntica a la segunda, ya que también implicaría la convocatoria de la Asamblea Revisora, pero con una significativa diferencia: Se convocaría a un referendo en busca de dar legitimidad al proceso. Esto no eliminaría las críticas a la reforma de la ya ultrarreformada Constitución, pero al menos las aplacaría. Cuando Medina se embarcó en su primera aventura reeleccionista, muchos sectores le reclamaban que convocara a un referendo. Incluso, los Castillo, de la FNP, que el pueblo conoce como “los Vincho”, llegaron a decir que hasta ellos apoyaban la reelección, si Danilo se atrevía a dar ese paso.
Este método sería altamente arriesgado. No es lo mismo ganar unas elecciones que un referendo, sobre todo en esas circunstancias. No hay que ser adivino para prever que opositores y leonelistas se unirían para que venza el “No”.

Apoyar a un “delfín”

Otra opción de Medina, y es con la que algunos sueñan, es que ofrezca su respaldo abierto a un dirigente del PLD, que podría ser uno de los “presidenciables” conocidos o algún “gallo tapao”. En este caso, lo primero sería más factible que lo segundo, porque no hay mucho tiempo para inventar.

De hecho, los que se mencionan como presidenciables, ya sea porque han competido antes, porque han declarado sus aspiraciones, o simplemente porque tienen el perfil, no han logrado apoyo significativo ni dentro ni fuera del PLD, de acuerdo a las encuestas.

En este posible escenario, Medina tendría muchas opciones en el menú, ya que la lista de aspirantes es larga, y aunque parecería que algunos han salido de ella, otros se han incorporado.

Por ejemplo, Andrés Navarro, ministro de Educación, y Gonzalo Castillo, de Obras Públicas, son dos danilistas que han adquirido la categoría de potenciales candidatos a la Presidencia. Sus gestiones al frente de los ministerios que les ha tocado dirigir, constituyen su principal aval. Aunque ambos son discretos, Navarro ya admite que tiene aspiraciones, y Castillo no niega que tiene las suyas.

Carlos Amarante Baret, ministro de Interior y Policía, es otro danilista que aspira. Y los dos Francisco, Javier García, de Turismo, y Domínguez Brito, de Medio Ambiente, ya son conocidos aspirantes. Aunque no provienen del danilismo, ambos se llevan bien con Medina y el sector que este encabeza.

Otro ministro, el administrativo de la Presidencia, José Ramón Peralta, era mencionado como opción, pero no parece que esté en eso, aunque cada vez se consolida como vocero oficioso del Gobierno.

Otros que se disputarían el apoyo de Medina en ese escenario serían Reinaldo Pared Pérez y Temo Montás.

El acuerdo del “ni tú ni yo” con Leonel

En el proceso electoral pasado, cuando el tema de la reelección enfrentó a leonelistas y danilistas, algunos planteaban que la salida era un acuerdo entre Medina y Fernández para apoyar a una tercera opción. En ese contexto salía a relucir el nombre de Margarita Cedeño, por varias razones. Es la esposa de Fernández, pero ha sido la compañera de boleta del mandatario dos veces, y los danilistas la ven con buenos ojos. Además, mantiene altos niveles de aceptación, según todas las encuestas realizadas en los últimos años.

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